Dutch social democracy has hit rock bottom. Rejoice!

Why a progressive alliance is the key to renewal for the PvdA.

Across Europe, social democracy is in unprecedented decline. The French PS was irrelevant at last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections and in Germany’s recent general elections the SPD lost yet more ground to rivals left and right. While the Labour Party in the UK may look like an exception to the rule, its 2017 election result owed a great deal to tactical voting – a last-resort strategy adopted by voters whose first-preference candidate or party was effectively disqualified by the first-past-the-post voting system. This article focuses on the Netherlands, where local elections on 21 March resulted in yet another downturn for the Partij van de Arbeid (PvdA). It argues that much like progressives in the UK, the Dutch left needs a progressive alliance, and that building such a pact offers social-democrats a path back to political relevance.

Only 12 years ago the Dutch social-democrats of the PvdA enjoyed a resounding success in nationwide local elections, winning almost 25 percent of the overall vote, and celebrating victories in Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht. The party seemed to have overcome its difficult moment of the early 2000s, when large chunks of its traditional voter base had turned to populist parties instead.

Now, three electoral cycles on from that day, the PvdA has seen more than two-thirds of its vote share across the Netherlands evaporate – a fall from first to fifth among the national parties. Looking at the results of last week’s Dutch local elections, one would be tempted to think that their 2006 victory was their last. It may well have been.

While at the national level the collapse of the social democrats (in the 2017 general election) was abrupt and spectacular, their demise in local councils has been a gradual one. Take Amsterdam, where between 2006 and 2018 the PvdA went from 20 to 15 to 10 to 5 seats on the city’s 45-seat municipal council. The picture is similar (if less linear) in other places, and begs the question whether time is up for social democracy in the Netherlands.

The answer is both ‘yes’ and ‘no’.

Empty nest

As a party in its own right, the PvdA has little hope of regaining its status as the leading force of the Dutch left. The proportional voting system in the Netherlands has bred a diverse – some would say fragmented – political landscape. Voter loyalty is low: the electorate has seen all kinds of ‘landslide’ election results for the best part of two decades, gradually tempting even the most risk-averse voter into reconsidering their options. All of this has eroded the appeal of a traditional broad-church social-democrat party, which today to many voters just looks bland.

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Map of the Netherlands showing the largest party per municipality (Image ANP)

In Amsterdam and Utrecht, cities with large populations of young, highly educated voters, the greens of GroenLinks were winners in last week’s local elections, receiving upwards of 20 percent of the vote. In Rotterdam and The Hague, where the ‘traditional working class’ electorate is bigger, victory went to local parties with populist roots. Denk, a new party speaking up for migrant communities, took multiple seats in all these cities’ councils. The list goes on, the picture is consistent: the voter constituencies formerly united in the social-democratic mainstream have branched out to new, bespoke political homes, leaving the PvdA a near-empty nest.

Green surge

While to some this may sound like a tragedy, it needn’t be. Sure, the demise of a largely progressive political party with all of its history, institutions, networks, and people represents a loss to Dutch politics and society. One that many, inside and outside the party, will continue to feel for some time to come. Nonetheless, the view from rock-bottom could be a hopeful one, as long as the Dutch social-democrats choose an inclusive path to renewal, one that recognises the challenges and opportunities of the wider progressive left, of which the PvdA used to be nucleus.

Nationally, Dutch progressives are on the back foot, and have been for some time. The so-called moderate parties of the right, as well as most media, are obsessed with anti-immigrant politicians, which the former shamelessly (and successfully) parrot for electoral gain. But it’s not all doom and gloom. While the left as a whole has contracted, the Dutch greens are breaking through into the mainstream, with GroenLinks winning big not just in university cities, but also in suburban areas and even in the industrial town of Helmond. All of this without diluting their message of rigorous economic reform, firm climate action, and welcoming refugees – a narrative previously associated with the electoral margins.

At the same time, the political emancipation of minority ethnic groups in the Netherlands has found a new vessel. Frustrated with barriers to representation within the mainstream parties, a group of non-white politicians broke away from the PvdA to form Denk, and quickly gathered a diverse following. Their agenda is a progressive one, mostly, and one that is finding a warm reception across migrant communities. While it is regrettable, of course, to find that the traditional parties have largely failed to empower migrant voices, the rise of Denk has the potential to improve the political representation and participation of people the traditional left was unable to reach.

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Frans Timmermans   (Image Elsevier).

The diverse progressive left in the Netherlands further includes a socialist party which has proven to be a potent left-wing alternative to divisive populists, and which boasts a wealth of networks and support especially in (post-)industrial communities. It includes a green protest party, which focuses on animal rights and has steadily grown since its inception 15 years ago. It has a good deal of common ground with the liberal democrats of D66 and the social protestant party, both of which are currently propping up the country’s centre-right government. And there’s the PvdA itself still, with all its political capital and its swathes of widely-respected politicians, from Frans Timmermans (European Commissioner) to Khadija Arib (Speaker of the House of Representatives) to Ahmed Aboutaleb (Mayor of Rotterdam).

Rainbow pact

Of course, the internal diversity of this landscape of progressive parties is not without challenges. But in a nation which has the consensus politics of coalition in its DNA, it should not be beyond progressive leaders to build on shared priorities and confront the regressive right in a more unified manner. This is where a renewed PvdA could prove itself essential, and where it could find a credible raison d’être: in being the broker and architect of a progressive answer to 17 years of cagy, reactive politics, dictated by fear of the likes of Fortuyn and Wilders.

The lure of governing, of delivering the Prime Minister, has always made the social democrats averse to entering into alliances with other, smaller, forces on the left. Now that the 2017 general election has decisively freed it from those shackles, and with no other progressive party naturally dominating the pack, it’s time for the PvdA (and indeed others on the left) to give serious thought to a common agenda that is brave and robust in its ambition, and firm in its rejection of the reactive right narrative. It would require progressive parties to agree and communicate the political direction before an election, then set the policy accents on the basis of the result.

If successful, such a ‘progressive rainbow pact’ could change politics for generations to come. Firstly, its success would demonstrate that right-wing populism can be beaten in a proportional system without pandering to its agenda of identity politics and fear. Secondly, it would show that a highly diverse political landscape, nurtured by the mechanics of proportional representation, can produce not only a stable governing force, but one that delivers bold progressive change, encompassing the priorities of a diverse electorate. This should be the destiny of social democracy in the Netherlands – and arguably across Europe.

This article was written for Compass and originally appeared here.

 

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GroenLinks: a big win against a bleak backdrop

The Dutch Greens should celebrate their win, but not the overall result

Left-leaning media in the UK and elsewhere have been teeming with jubilant headlines hailing the success of GroenLinks in the Dutch parliamentary elections on 15 March. Without doubt, their progress was remarkable and well-deserved. However, it would be wishful thinking to see in the Green gains, and in the smaller-than-projected increase of the right-wing populist vote, a definitive turn from bigotry to progressive politics in The Netherlands.

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Jesse Klaver led GroenLinks to its best ever parliamentary election result.

Green success

The story of GroenLinks, the Dutch Green Party, certainly is an optimism-inspiring one: under the leadership of 30-year-old Jesse Klaver, they went from four seats to 14 in the 150-seat national parliament, making them the largest party on the left, a position they share with the Socialists.

The renaissance of green politics in the Netherlands was further emboldened by gains for the Partij voor de Dieren, a party originally dedicated to animal rights but today campaigning on a broader environmental justice platform, and for other – centrist – parties embracing climate action. It also appears that GroenLinks’ pitch to younger voters was successful, which will have contributed to the unusually high turnout of 80 percent.

Obama-style campaign

GroenLinks ran a near-flawless campaign, making the most of the charisma of its young leader in a style heavily inspired by the Obama campaigns of 2008 and 2012. The campaign was bold in its mission, billing GroenLinks as a party for everyone, not just the traditional niche of well-off environmentally conscious city dwellers.

For the first time (as this is not a common campaign instrument in The Netherlands), large numbers of members and supporters went out to knock on doors, even where support was likely to be modest. Meanwhile, leader Jesse Klaver was omnipresent in the media, and held slick rallies, the final one in the country’s biggest concert hall. It was sold out.

During the final weeks of the campaign, some polls had GroenLinks on 20 seats, which would have made it the second-largest party. In the end, they had to settle for shared fifth place, but could still boast having the biggest net gain of all. The mood at GroenLinks’ election results gathering in Amsterdam was euphoric, while national media indulged in speculation about Green participation in a new coalition government.

Right rhetorics and left losses

Yet, as Jesse Klaver was making his ‘victory’ speech to Green campaigners, he must have known that GroenLinks’ result was a double-edged sword. Two miles away, the Social Democrats of the PvdA were reflecting on their biggest-ever defeat, losing three-quarters of their vote share, and 29 of their 38 seats. Yet again, the Dutch left finds itself weakened overall. Some polls suggest that of GroenLinks’ ten new seats, as many as six were gained at the PvdA’s expense.

The election result will pave the way for a centre-right coalition, which may or may not include GroenLinks. Two of the parties almost certain to govern, VVD and CDA, are portrayed in international media as part of the response to rising populism, while Dutch analysts rightly point out that these traditional right-wing parties have in effect espoused much of the anti-immigration rhetoric of the extreme right. They do not make natural coalition partners for the Dutch Greens, whose narrative was the very opposite.

What on the surface may seem a clear rejection of right-wing populism and a boost for green and progressive politics, hides the reality of a divided nation, where the agenda of the likes of Trump and Le Pen has made gradual progress for more than 15 years, leaving the left perpetually on the back foot.

Whether as junior coalition partners or as opposition leaders, GroenLinks must continue to present an appealing alternative to nationalist bigotry. They have never been in a better position to do so.

This piece was first published on Bright Green, 21 March 2017. 

 

Hull City, unlikely writers of Premier League history

No more than once a year do I write about football. I consider myself fully unqualified to make insightful comments about the game itself, so I leave that to those who at the start of the season were certain that Chelsea would be champions and Leicester City relegated. The 2015-2016 Premier League left them with lots to write about, but we need to talk about a match that is being played today, in Hull.

In this evening’s Championship play-off semi-final, Hull City defends a 3-0 lead over Derby County. People who regularly write about football have assured me that Derby are unlikely to overturn this, in which case Hull would proceed to the play-off final – a match that sees the winner grab the last ticket to the 2016-2017 Premier League. Sheffield Wednesday will be the other team in that final; they qualified yesterday.

Should things go as widely expected – not much of a guarantee these days – then the play-off final will be a kind of derby, as both teams are based in the Yorkshire and the Humber region. This circumstance is unlikely to trouble any of the fans supporting their teams at Wembley on the 28th of May, but whoever wins will be the sole team representing their region at the top flight of English football.

A little over a year ago, Hull City seemed well-placed to prolong their stay in the Premier League, but an unexpected (there’s a theme here) renaissance of Leicester City and a typical narrow escape by Sunderland saw them relegated on the final day of the season, ruining the scenario I had so carefully devised. My wish for the Premier League to include teams from all English regions plus Wales had almost been realised, but then Yorkshire and the Humber failed to play ball.

Despite the Yorkshire fiasco, the total number of regions represented in this year’s competition was a record-breaking nine, up one from the year before and more than double the 2010-2011 region count. Somehow, all nine regions managed to keep at least one of their teams up – hats off to Bournemouth – and with Burnley and Middlesbrough taking the automatic promotion spots, Yorkshire and the Humber looked at risk of being the only absentee for a second consecutive season.

Now, however, their teams appear to dominate the play-offs, and in some 45 minutes the prospect of an all-region Premier League may have materialised. For the first time since its establishment in 1992! How very fitting that it would be Hull City delivering it, after their very unfortunate relegation last year. And still it may not be them getting promoted. I’m easy about that though, as long as they win tonight to write football geography history.

Live update: as I was writing, the match got underway and currently Hull City are 0-2 down, Derby County needing only one more goal to take the match to extra time. Come on Hull, don’t do this to me and my regionalist dream again!

Post-match update: Derby County didn’t manage a third and Hull City are through! There will be teams from all regions in the 2016-2017 Premier League.

 

National Cycle Route 81: Welshpool to Aberystwyth

Route 81 of the National Cycle Network runs between Wolverhampton and Aberystwyth. I was touring in Mid Wales when I happened upon a Route 81 sign in Welshpool. Since I had no precise plan of where to go next, I decided to follow the route and see where it would take me. It turned out I wouldn’t regret it.Route 81 map

The route on a map

0 miles From Welshpool rail station, the route briefly follows the Montgomery Canal in a southerly direction. In the absence of a towpath, there is a short section on the A458 ending in a slightly tricky right turn towards Powis Castle. Leaving the canal behind, it’s immediately uphill; a taste of what’s to come.

1 mile Throughout the 15 miles between Welshpool and Newtown the route is impeccably signposted, following quiet roads that dip in and out of the valleys of various Severn tributaries, before eventually joining the river itself. The traverse of Newtown is virtually car-free with the route leaving the B4389 just after Aberbechan to follow towpaths and footpaths for several miles, staying close to the river Severn. Needless to say that this section is slow, as paths are shared with pedestrians most of the way through Newtown.

17 miles As the route exits the riverside park, there is scope for confusion as the signposting here isn’t watertight. I ended up missing a left turn, off the A489, and turned to Google Maps when I got to a big roundabout with no familiar signs. Leaving Newtown behIMG_2358ind, the route continues on narrow, quiet roads, climbing out of the Severn valley to the oddly named hamlet of Stepaside. From here, the scenic quality is a step up, as is the effort required to cycle up a long and rather steep hill. In the absence of Route 81 signs, I occasionally wondered if I was still on course, which was only confirmed two miles and seven side roads later. The long climb is followed by an exhilarating descent that features an actual hairpin bend. Caution required throughout, as one cannot see very far ahead on this narrow road.

24 miles At Caersws the route briefly checks in with the populated world – an A-road, a shop and a pub, IMG_2368a railway station – before heading off into tranquil countryside again. The narrow road leads over a series of short, steep hills before re-joining the Severn river in the pretty town of Llanidloes. It’s easy to miss some of the signs here – cyclists should make a sharp right turn in the town centre and aim for the old bridge over the Severn, not continue straight on as I did.

34 miles After crossing the Severn one final time, the road goes up and up again to the highest point so far, then down abruptly into the village of Llangurig. Here, it crosses the busy A44 to then team up with the River Wye, which it accompanies for ten very scenic miles. The road does not stay level IMG_2376with the river, but gently rises and falls, offering fantastic views over the deep valley. A few miles into this road, it seems to end in a private farmyard, with a gate blocking the way and no Route 81 signage to help out. Luckily for me, there was a lady at the first farm who clarified that the cycle route passes through their property, and that cyclists are welcome to operate the gates to continue their way. There are another four or five gates over the next few miles, then the route brushes the town of Rhayader, before dramatically changing character.

45 miles From Rhayader, the route coincides with the Elan Valley Trail for about nine miles, and for much of that distance it runs on the disused Elan Valley Railway track. The track is sharIMG_2379ed with pedestrians rather than cars and the surface varies: some sections are unpaved. The change of landscape past Elan Village is sudden: the track now finds itself between a steep rock face and a deep valley, while it continues to climb at a gentle rate. Soon enough, the first of the victorian dams appears and the valley abruptly turns into a lake – the Caban-coch Reservoir. Two more dams and two more reservoirs lie ahead and the track continues to climb ever so slightly, lined with wildflowers for some of the way.

IMG_2389IMG_2400IMG_2402IMG_2407

55 miles At the third and final dam, Route 81 becomes a tarmac road again, going across the dam, then northbound, a sign indicating ‘Aberystwyth – via mountain road’. It has climbed its way out of the Elan Valley and now a broad panorama of bare green hills opens itself. There is a very steep descent followed by a short steep climb where the road crosses the river Elan again – only a modest mountain stream here. Then, the route enters what must be one of Wales’ emptiest valleys.

60 miles Over the next six miles, there are perhaps three dwellings that can be seen from the road – otherwise there are just hills and sheep, with the rugged stream giving the shallow valley a Nordic feel. The persistent absence of Route 81 signs further exacerbates the feeling that I have come to the end of the world. But only temporarily, as I find out when rounding the pass between the Elan Valley and the Ystwyth Valley, which tops at 406 metres, the highest point on the route.

IMG_241064 miles It is a long and beautiful descent into the valley of the River Ystwyth, a much deeper and narrower valley than the one I have just left behind. The road stays level with the river for a couple of miles, then climbs again. At a fork in the road, shortly after Cwmystwyth, the route departs from the main road and descends into woodland, using a gravel track. Signage is lacking in much of the wood section, although the various paths seem to all eventually lead to the same road, which if taken in the right (westerly) direction becomes Route 81 again.

73 miles Pont-rhyd-y-groes is the first village with amenities since Rhayader 25 miles ago. Exiting the village, the route continues to follow the River Ystwysth, crossing some dense forest with hillsides covered in ferns and tiny streams channeling the day’s rain towards the river below. This must be close to what a non-tropical rainforest looks like. After about three miles, the route very briefly joins the B4340. While the B-road departs from the riIMG_2421ver and disappears uphill, the route takes a right turn onto a path that ends at a stream. The route goes over a small wooden bridge into a wood, which is home to the trickiest off-road section.

79 miles Immediately after crossing the stream, the route follows an extremely narrow unpaved path, which climbs at a decent rate. The path can be muddy, somewhat overgrown with bramble, with no firm ground on either side of it. While it may be great for mountain biking, other cyclists may struggle, like I did, to stay on their bike as they negotiate this track. I am pleased that my struggle is uphill, as riding my packed touring bike down this path would have been asking for trouble. Anyway, it’s only a short interruption, as this path leads to the disused Great Western Railway track, a broad and straight path through the woods – unpaved though.

IMG_242680 miles For the next few miles, the route alternates between the old railway track and quiet local roads. Occasionally there are gates to be negotiated, including one at the bottom of an off-road downhill. The last section of the route is very well signposted (it coincides with the EU-funded Ystwyth Trail here) and only intersects an A-road at Llanfarian. The final miles, between Llanfarian and Aberystwyth, take the route over beautifully paved car-free paths, to the end of the Ystwyth Valley, then briefly along the sea. When this privilege finally ends, Aberystwyth rail station is already in sight.

I cycled from Welshpool to Aberystwyth between 17 and 19 August 2015 on a Koga Randonneur touring bike with two sets of panniers and a lightweight tent. I camped in Caersws and in Cwmystwyth. Weather was sunny and warm on 17 and 18 August; heavy rain on 19 August. 

The total distance of this section of Route 81 is 90 miles (144km). The total elevation gain is approximately 6,500 feet (2,000 meters). The route uses unpaved roads and tracks on numerous occasions, sometimes for a considerable distance.

While there are frequent opportunities for eating, drinking and camping between Welshpool and Rhayader, facilities along the route between Rhayader and Pont-rhyd-y-groes are scarce. There is a campsite in Cwmystwyth but it has no shop or cafe.Cwmystwyth campsite

Letter to Galeries Lafayette Paris Haussmann

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Dear Madam, Sir,

My Eurostar ticket came with your generous offer for a complimentary glass of champagne at your Paris department store. Unfortunately for me, my ticket is from London to Brussels and not to Paris, so I shall be unable to present myself at your welcome desk.

While this saddened me at first, I was comforted upon reading the small print. In the end, my choice of destination had not bereft me of this potential pleasure: even if I had made it to your welcome desk with my E-ticket to hand, and after spending a minimum of 40€ in your store, I would still be ineligible for this tempting complimentary glass of champagne, for I do not hold an English passport.

For a moment this led me to believe that you were perhaps discriminating your customers on the basis of their nationality, which would have been a serious matter, and one that might get a respectable enterprise like yourself in some trouble, but that was before I got your joke.

Of course, I thought, you would not risk discriminating on the basis of nationality. It’s all in the small print! Once I had read it properly it was clear to me: you do not have any champagne. For there isn’t such a thing as an English passport, so not a single customer, whether they are Scottish, Irish, French or indeed English, will meet the criteria required for that prominently advertised complimentary glass of champagne.

I hope your joke gets a good reception among the many thousands of people of a great many nationalities who travel with Eurostar every day. I do look forward to the stories of those who bought in to your ‘plaisanterie’ and took to your welcome desk with a thirst for complimentary champagne, only to find out that they’d need a fake passport to qualify.

Please will you keep me updated of any future complimentary champagne offers, especially those that would require the presentation of a Dutch passport?

With compliments for your exquisite sense of humour,

Remco van der Stoep

Leaders’ debate bingo (advanced)

Here are ten words that I predict will receive very few mentions in this evening’s leaders’ debate on ITV – the only scheduled televised confrontation in the run-up to the UK general elections on 7 May.

Not random words of course, but things that you might reasonably expect the parties represented to care and differ about. Things that voters ought to know in order to make up their mind.

I suggest using them for election debate bingo this evening. In some circles this has become a popular game: listing words or terms that participants are likely to use, and crossing them off as they are said. I thought we could make that game a little bit more interesting for this evening by suggesting ten words that, despite their political relevance, are likely to remain in the margins. Write them onto your bingo form and there will be suspense until the end of the debate – can one of them please mention…?

Screen shot 2015-04-02 at 16.47.441. Food. The horse meat scandal was only a short while ago and that is just one of many aspects of food security and regulation that need to be addressed.

2. Drugs. Past governments have wilfully ignored evidence that the UK policy on drugs is ineffective.

3. Ukraine. Escalation of this conflict will have repercussions all over Europe and the UK cannot afford to remain a bystander.

4. TTIP. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership – this deal between the US and the EU would see corporations getting much greater power to get around national legislation.

5. Gender pay gap. The most prominent of a range of gender equality issues that have the UK trailing other European countries.

6. Mental health. The achilles heel of the NHS.

7. Palestine. The re-election of Netanyahu in Israel implies that the road to peace remains long, while the wounds of the latest Gaza war haven’t healed at all.

8. Cycling. Prevention is the easiest way to reduce the cost of the NHS and the public health benefits of cycling are uncontested.

9. Flooding. A constant risk to many areas of the UK with far-reaching economic (as well as human) consequences.

10. Airport expansion. The grotesque PR war between Heathrow and Gatwick distracts from greater strategic questions about the north-south divide and climate change.

Crossed them all? Tweet BINGO to @DialoguebyRemco to claim your prize.

Come on Bournemouth! And Derby. Or Leicester.

When in 2010 Hull City and Portsmouth were relegated from the FA Premier League it meant that two English regions lost their only team in the top flight.

Clubs in the English Premier League 2010-11 (Wikipedia)

Clubs in the English Premier League 2010-11 (Wikipedia)

Since a similar fate had struck other regions in the previous years, the season 2010-11 became a contest between teams from four regions only: two from the North East, five from both the West Midlands and Greater London and a whopping eight from the North West. It must have been a cheap and easy season for some supporters – those of Wigan Athletic had seven away matches within cycling distance.

During its first decade, the Premier League (formed in 1992) consistently included clubs from seven or eight regions. The number fell to six in 2002, fluctuated between seven and five in subsequent seasons, until the 2010 dip that marked the first and only time in the league’s history that the majority of regions were unrepresented.

Number of regions represented in Premier League by season

Number of regions represented in Premier League by season

Then, Norwich City and Swansea City came to the rescue and got themselves promoted from the Championship. This was remarkable, as the East of England had been deprived of Premier League football for four years, and no team from Wales had ever achieved the ultimate promotion.

Teams of the 2014-15 Premier League on a map (Wikipedia)

Teams of the 2014-15 Premier League on a map (Wikipedia)

Sure enough, in the next few years clubs from other regions followed their example and currently the number of regions with Premier League football is back where it once started, at eight.

Yet, that is still eight out of a possible ten – Wales plus the nine English regions. Interestingly and unexpectedly, a scenario for full regional representation is currently presenting itself. Here’s what it looks like.

The two regions currently without a club competing in the Premier League are the East of England (Norwich City sadly went down last year) and the South West. The latter has been without a top level contender since 1994, when Swindon Town were relegated. Amazingly, with seven rounds to go, Bournemouth, the only team from the South West in the Championship, top the table, a position that would grant them their first ever promotion to the Premier League. With Norwich City, Watford, and Ipswich Town all in the top six, the East of England has three clubs well-placed for promotion.

In a way, the promotion of sides from the South West and the East of England is the easy part of the scenario. The difficult bit is getting the East Midlands to cooperate. Their only Premier League team, Leicester City, are hopelessly glued to the bottom of the table and have nine matches left to close a seven-point gap to safe 17th. In the likely case of a Leicester City relegation, the Championship would need to provide a regional replacement to secure a ten-region Premier League season in 2015-16.

Nottingham Forest have failed to keep promotion spots within reach, but Derby County are still hanging on, currently occupying 5th, which would qualify them for promotion play-offs.

So there’s the scenario in full: Bournemouth and one of the Eastern clubs to take the two top spots in this season’s Championship, then either Leicester to stay up or Derby to win the play-offs. Oh, and we can’t have Hull City go down, that would spoil everything. If, like me, you would quite like to see an all-region Premier League for the first time in its history, now you know what to do. Cheer for Bournemouth, and for Derby (or Leicester), and for Norwich (or Ipswich or Watford, but not for all of them), and a little bit for Hull. Easy!